
Moderator:John Kreger, Equity Research Analyst, WILLIAM BLAIR & COMPANY
Speakers:Derek Gustafson, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Division, MACQUARIE SECURITIES (USA) INC.
Randall Stanicky, CFA, Vice President, Global Investment Research, GOLDMAN SACHS
David H. Windley, CFA, CPA, Managing Director, Healthcare Equity Research, JEFFRIES & COMPANY
David: Forecast for industry growth, there is a dramatic growth in cancellations of gross bookings in the 2008. How much backlog have you added as a percentage of your revenue? Companies are adding business to backlog long before they convert it to revenue. Two outcomes: The revenue flows through after a break, or perhaps there is a hold, and the revenue leaks.
Randall Stanicky, Golamdan Sachs discussed what was going to happen with the CRO outlook for 2009 and beyond. What’s going to go on in this space? What will be the picture for actual growth?
What will happen in the upcoming years for Pharma:
- Pharma R&D spending is slowing – 0-5% annual growth which is likely the reality. If we look at the biotech side, they have less than 3 years of cash available. Many of these companies won’t be around for very long.
- Patent cliff is coming – increasing the need for more compounds. There is a need to continue to spend and find opportunities for new drugs- Post M&A restructuring will likely result in substantial R&D synergies
- CRO industry growth is increasingly and biotech funding decreasing, CROs are more dependent on greater outsourcing – strategic alliances will be key going forward
- Expect share shift towards larger CROs in the future, larger CROs are putting up larger booking numbers
- Outsourcing will continue to movie ex-US
- We see stable long term growth despite near-term headwinds
- “Street” view – tough 2009 but improvement in 2010. All 2009 growth was decelerated, but look to pickup in 2010. Consensus analysts 2009: -6% in w009, but 20% in 2010. But analysts her believe that things change quickly and meaningfully.
- CROs will be valued differently from the future John Kreger of William Blare and Company pointed out that stock prices and value prices, M&A is still pretty robust and will continue to be that way. Outsourcing stocks have performed nicely, but underperformed since September 2008.
Then the audience had a chance to ask their questions.Gross margins are holding in contrast at odds with specific contracts. Do you expect more of this to hold? The panel stated that looking at the fourth quarter of 2008, a lot of commentary about price discounting and offers of significant volume discounts. This will be detrimental effect on the margin. Key question is staffing levels. Companies retain too much capacity for the real amount of work that was there to be won. This time, can we get right amount of man power to get the job done?
Why are large Pharma companies are cutting back on R&D when the opposite needs to happen? Steve –Companies need to find ways to be more productive. They can focus on cutting R&D on short term basis, at the same time, they’re looking internally to be more productive to find more ways to be the same.
Preclinical companies are doing worse. Do you see any vertical integration, Pharma buying them rather than let them go out of business?It will come down to the strategic type of deals and if they evolve. Industries may strategically partner, which would be linking to early development to later development. So far, this hasn’t happened. If we see all Phases overlap, then there’s a very strong argument for companies to go vertical. Other industries viewing disruptive change, companies will come in and do it better, the displacement of existing large companies is inevitable. Short term versus long-term. Pharma deferring studies that are important to long-term growth but at the same time Pharma needs new drugs to come out of the pipeline in order to gain more profit.
What are some of the current struggles with Pharma currently? Lack of compounds, Patent cliff, growth forecast leads a significant challenge to meet the top line. How much money does pharma have to spend? Secondly, macro level, find out what the biggest drivers are. IMS, updated growth forecast, 2 ½% and it’s negative in the US, there is a precedence in the US industry. This panelist believes that they haven’t found the magic bullet to keep R&D spending from going up. The FDA’s demand on safety aren’t going to let up, we’ve got to offset to make the million dollars a compound number go down. The Pharma industry needs to let R&D grow to let compounds come through the pipeline to end up as a revenue.
What level of consolidate in the generic industry?If you are a US based generic manufacture, the global generic industry, they’re getting much more aggressive, in every aspect of their pursuit. If there is going to be a next wave to save the train wreck in 2012, the follow will be on biologics. The momentum is on a regulatory requirement on clinical trials for generic drugs.
Biotechs are running out of cash. Who will rescue them?This industry needs novel drugs. Good technology will get funded. Next wave of consolidation, pharma will acquire biotech. We’ve seen mega mergers over the past few months. Panelists assumes that strategic money will flow from
Pharma into Biotech companies.